Diesel Tops £2 a Litre Nationally — and a Refinery Shutdown and US Export Threat Could Push It Higher

A week ago diesel broke its all-time record. Now it has crossed the line nobody wanted to see. RAC Fuel Watch puts the UK average at 200.01p a litre, up from 199.79p the day before and the first time the national average has ever been above £2. The previous record of 199.09p, set in June 2022, was passed on 28 September.

Filling a 55-litre family diesel car now costs £110.01, which is £31.70 more than at the end of February when the US–Iran conflict began. Petrol is rising too, at 174.71p a litre, making a 55-litre tank £96.09 — £23.03 more than in February.

Britain's biggest refinery has stopped production

ExxonMobil has confirmed it has temporarily shut production at its Fawley refinery near Southampton for planned maintenance, expected to last up to 10 weeks and run into November. Fawley is the largest refinery in the UK and makes around a fifth of the diesel sold on British forecourts, as well as jet fuel for Heathrow.

ExxonMobil says the shutdown is routine and does not affect the UK's fuel supply, and Fawley's marine import terminal means it can bring in refined fuel to keep supplying customers while the plant is offline. The catch is that every litre replaced that way has to be bought on the international market, which is exactly where diesel is scarcest and most expensive right now.

The UK is already short of its own diesel. Britain had 18 refineries in the 1980s and now has four. The closures of Grangemouth and Lindsey in 2025 cut UK refinery output by around a third, and even with all four plants running, the UK makes less diesel than it uses and imports roughly half its needs. We explain why the UK makes plenty of petrol but not enough diesel in why diesel costs more than petrol.

The US export ban threat

The second worry comes from Washington. President Trump has said he is “thinking” about banning exports of US diesel, as American pump prices also hit records. The US has become one of the UK's most important suppliers, providing around a third of the diesel Britain imports — roughly one litre in six of all the diesel used here.

No ban has been imposed. The UK has joined emergency talks with European countries about a joint response, including whether to release emergency diesel stocks. That matters because the UK holds much smaller reserves than its neighbours: around six weeks of diesel, compared with about six months in France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

Will there be diesel shortages?

There are no shortages now, and the government says it does not expect any. Transport minister Keir Mather told Sky News that the UK has “a diverse range of supply” for diesel and that the supply chain is resilient. ExxonMobil says Fawley's customers will continue to be supplied through its import terminal.

The bigger near-term risk is price rather than supply. The RAC has warned that a US export ban could push diesel higher still, because Britain would have to compete with the rest of Europe for cargoes from elsewhere.

Petrol drivers may be paying for diesel too

The RAC's analysis suggests petrol is dearer than it should be. Based on recent retailing trends, it would expect unleaded to average around 170p a litre, not 174.71p. Its explanation is that some retailers may be holding diesel down a little by balancing prices across the two fuels — in other words, petrol drivers are helping to soften the diesel price.

That makes shopping around just as worthwhile for petrol drivers. The gap between the cheapest and dearest forecourts in the same area is regularly far bigger than 5p a litre — see why petrol prices differ in the same town.

What £2 diesel costs you

The RAC works out that an average 45mpg diesel car now costs about 20p a mile to fuel, so a driver covering 10,000 miles a year is spending around £2,020 on diesel.

For your own car and mileage, try the journey cost calculator.

Will the Budget bring relief?

The RAC wants the Chancellor to cut fuel duty further or reduce VAT on fuel in the Budget on Wednesday 28 October. Duty is currently 52.95p a litre, with the 5p cut due to end on 31 December 2026. At 200.01p, VAT adds about 33.3p, so tax makes up around 86p of every litre of diesel — more in how much fuel is taxed in the UK. The options on the table are set out in Budget 28 October: the fuel duty decision.

How to keep paying less than £2

£2 is the national average, which means a large share of forecourts are still below it. Where you fill up matters far more than when.

National averages and tank costs are from RAC Fuel Watch as of 2 October 2026, based on a 55-litre tank. Live figures come from the government Fuel Finder feed and refresh every 15 minutes.