June turned into a month of two halves. It began with drivers still paying close to the highest prices since 2022, then a US–Iran framework deal sent oil to a three-month low and forecourts started cutting. In late June the recovery looked shaky — we covered how the falls stalled when Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and talks in Switzerland were called off. But diplomacy regrouped in Qatar, and despite a worrying exchange of strikes over the final weekend of the month, both sides agreed to keep talking. Mediators have since reported progress, and the oil price has resumed its slide.
The proof is on the water. Shipping analysts tracked 35 oil and gas tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz in a single day this week — the first time traffic has returned to the range seen before the war. The waterway carried around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil before the conflict shut it in late February, and its reopening is happening faster than most in the industry predicted. Some analysts have swung so far the other way that they're now warning of a possible glut — too much oil returning to a market where demand, particularly from China, has weakened.
The June numbers in full
RAC Fuel Watch analysis of the month's Fuel Finder data confirms just how sharp the turnaround was. Diesel started June at 183.75p a litre and ended it at 167.14p — a fall of 16.6p that beats the previous record for a calendar month (11.92p, set in May 2023) by almost 5p. Petrol dropped from 159.37p to 151.40p, which the RAC ranks as the seventh-largest monthly fall in over 26 years of records.
| Measure | 1 June 2026 | 30 June 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average petrol (per litre) | 159.37p | 151.40p | -7.97p |
| Average diesel (per litre) | 183.75p | 167.14p | -16.6p |
| Brent crude (per barrel) | $94.98 | $72.92 | -$22.06 |
| 55-litre petrol fill-up | £87.65 | £83.27 | -£4.40 |
| 55-litre diesel fill-up | £101.06 | £91.93 | -£9.13 |
The official Government weekly figures tell the same story: for the week beginning 29 June, average petrol was recorded at 151.0p (down 2.2p on the week) and diesel at 167.1p (down 5.4p). The gap between diesel and petrol, which blew out to almost 34p at the height of the crisis in April, has narrowed to around 16p — and diesel drivers, who bore the worst of the spike, are seeing the fastest relief. The big four supermarkets cut diesel by roughly 19p a litre over the month, more than the national average.
Averages hide the best deals: While the mean petrol price ended June at 151.4p, the most common price on UK forecourts was already 149.9p — meaning plenty of stations are under 150p right now. At the extreme end, the cheapest petrol in England was selling at 139.7p in Bishop Auckland and the cheapest diesel at 152.9p in Wolverhampton, while Northern Ireland's averages (147.5p petrol, 162.6p diesel) remain the UK's lowest.
Why prices are finally falling properly
The RAC's head of policy, Simon Williams, said "June has been a far better month for drivers" — and put the improvement squarely down to the US–Iran deal feeding through to cheaper oil, which retailers have passed on at the pump. The motoring group also credits the Government's Fuel Finder scheme, which obliges retailers to report price changes within 30 minutes, with helping the cuts arrive faster than they might have in previous downturns. That transparency is exactly the data this site is built on.
But the RAC is also careful with the context: diesel's average price rocketed 49p a litre between the end of February and its 15 April peak of 191.54p — a rise of more than a penny a day. So even a record monthly fall only unwinds part of the damage. Before the war began, drivers were paying around 132p for petrol and 142p for diesel. We're still nearly 20p and 25p above those levels respectively.
How much further can prices fall?
The short-term direction looks encouraging. With oil in the low $70s — only around $10 above where it averaged before the conflict — the RAC expects petrol to dip below 150p soon and diesel to drop under 160p. There's also cheaper wholesale fuel bought in late June still working its way to forecourts, so further cuts should land over the coming weeks even if oil goes sideways. A full return to pre-war prices, though, would need crude to keep falling — and that depends on the peace holding.
The risks haven't gone away: The reopening is running on an interim deal, not a signed peace. The weekend strikes at the end of June showed how quickly things can flare up, mine clearance in the Strait is still incomplete, war-risk insurance remains elevated, and the US sanctions relief underpinning the arrangement is due to expire on 21 August unless extended. We've seen this movie twice already this year — prices fell, talks wobbled, and the falls stalled. Enjoy the cheaper fuel, but don't bank on it being a one-way street.
What this means for you
When prices are falling, the gap between the quickest cutters and the slowest widens — the familiar "rocket and feathers" effect works in reverse, with some forecourts passing on wholesale falls within days while others sit on higher prices for weeks. That's why the spread between the cheapest and dearest station in the same town is often at its widest in a month like this one. The national average is 151p, but stations near you may already be under 145p — or still charging over 160p. We explain why prices differ so much across the same town.
The tax picture is stable for now: fuel duty remains at 52.95p a litre, with the 5p cut extended to the end of 2026 and the next rise not due until January 2027 — we covered the revised timetable in our report on the cancelled September duty rise, and you can see the full breakdown of how much of your fuel bill is tax. You can also track the weekly national averages on our UK Fuel Price Index.
The practical move right now: If you can be flexible about when and where you fill up, this is a good fortnight to be choosy. Prices are falling but unevenly — so a quick comparison before you drive is worth more than usual. Diesel drivers especially: with supermarkets cutting hardest, the difference between filling at the right forecourt and the wrong one can easily top £5 a tank this week.