Petrol Prices Rising in the UK: What Drivers Should Expect

Petrol prices across the UK are climbing again. As of early March 2026, the average price of unleaded petrol (E10) stands at around 135–136p per litre, with diesel at approximately 146p per litre. Both have risen by 3–5p per litre over the past month alone.

The increase follows a turbulent start to 2026 in global energy markets. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, while a weaker pound and the looming end of the UK's temporary fuel duty cut are adding further pressure. For drivers, the question is how much worse it could get — and what they can do about it.

Why petrol prices are rising

Fuel prices at UK petrol stations are shaped by several global and domestic factors working together.

The single biggest influence is the price of crude oil on international markets. When oil prices rise — often triggered by geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions or production decisions by oil-producing nations — wholesale fuel costs follow.

In early 2026, oil prices have been volatile. Brent crude started the year at around $61 per barrel but surged as high as $84 amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, and disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route through which roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply passes every day. Supply outages in North America caused by severe winter weather, along with reduced exports from Venezuela, have tightened the market further.

Analysts estimate that geopolitical uncertainty alone has added a risk premium of $4–$10 per barrel to oil prices. If the situation in the Middle East worsens, some forecasts suggest oil could spike towards $80–$100 per barrel, which would push UK pump prices considerably higher.

Beyond oil, exchange rates also play a role. Because oil is traded in US dollars, a weaker pound makes fuel more expensive to import. Refining costs, transportation, and retailer margins all add further to what drivers pay at the pump.

How much of the price is tax?

Tax makes up a surprisingly large portion of every litre of fuel sold in the UK.

At current prices, approximately 73p of every litre of unleaded petrol is tax. This is made up of:

• Fuel duty: currently 52.95p per litre (including the temporary 5p cut introduced in March 2022)
• VAT at 20%: applied to the total price including duty, adding roughly 20–25p per litre

Together, duty and VAT account for more than half of what drivers pay at the pump. The remaining cost covers crude oil, refining, distribution, and the retailer's margin (typically 3–8p per litre).

Fuel duty: what's changing in 2026

The temporary 5p per litre fuel duty cut — first introduced in March 2022 in response to the energy price crisis — has been extended repeatedly by successive governments. It will remain in place until 31 August 2026.

After that, fuel duty will begin to rise for the first time in over 15 years, with increases phased in over several months:

From April 2027, fuel duty will also begin rising each year in line with inflation (RPI) for the first time since 2011. For the average driver covering 7,500–8,000 miles per year, the return to pre-2022 duty rates will add roughly £5–6 per tank compared to today's prices.

Why price changes take time to appear at forecourts

Fuel prices do not usually rise or fall instantly when oil prices change.

Petrol stations typically purchase fuel in advance, meaning the fuel currently being sold may have been bought days or even weeks earlier. Because of this, changes in wholesale fuel prices often appear gradually at forecourts rather than overnight.

Different petrol stations may also adjust prices at different speeds depending on their supply contracts, stock levels, and local competition. This is one reason why prices can vary so much between nearby stations — and why it's worth checking before you fill up.

Price differences between stations

One of the biggest surprises for many drivers is just how much fuel prices can vary between nearby petrol stations.

Even within the same town, prices can differ by several pence per litre. In some cases, drivers in the same area have been found to be paying up to 20p per litre more than others simply by filling up at a different station.

Supermarkets generally offer some of the cheapest fuel in the UK, typically pricing 3–8p below the national average. However, this is not always the case — some independent stations and discount brands can match or beat supermarket prices locally.

For drivers filling up regularly, comparing nearby prices before every fill can lead to significant savings over the course of a year. On a 50-litre tank, even a 5p per litre saving adds up to £2.50 per fill — or over £100 a year for someone filling up weekly.

Regional price variations

Fuel prices also vary across different parts of the UK. The South East — including London — tends to have the highest average prices for both petrol and diesel, while Northern Ireland consistently has some of the lowest, with unleaded often 5–7p per litre below the national average.

Rural areas and motorway service stations typically charge the most, with motorway prices often 15–20p per litre above nearby town forecourts. Planning your route ahead and filling up before a long motorway journey can save a noticeable amount.

What drivers should expect next

The outlook for the coming months depends heavily on how the global situation develops.

If tensions in the Middle East ease and diplomatic progress is made, oil prices could settle back towards the $60–65 per barrel range, which would take some pressure off pump prices. However, if conflict escalates — particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — oil could spike significantly higher, and UK drivers would feel that at the pump within weeks.

Even without further global disruption, the scheduled fuel duty increases from September 2026 mean that prices are very likely to be higher by the end of the year than they are today. Drivers should expect:

• Short term (spring 2026): Prices may continue to fluctuate depending on oil markets. Small rises and falls of 1–3p per litre are likely over the coming weeks.
• Medium term (autumn 2026): The first fuel duty increase on 1 September will add at least 1p per litre, with VAT on top making the actual pump price increase slightly higher.
• Longer term (2027): By March 2027, duty will have returned to 57.95p per litre — a 5p increase from today — and inflation-linked rises will begin annually thereafter.

How to find cheaper fuel near you

With prices rising and further increases on the way, checking local prices before filling up makes more sense than ever.

Using a free fuel price comparison tool allows you to quickly see the cheapest petrol and diesel nearby, so you can avoid paying more than necessary. Since February 2026, the government's Fuel Finder scheme requires all UK fuel retailers to report their prices within 30 minutes, making comparison tools more accurate and up to date than ever before.

A few simple habits can help reduce what you spend on fuel:

• Compare prices before filling up — even a short detour to a cheaper station can save several pounds per tank
• Avoid motorway service stations — prices are consistently 15–20p higher per litre
• Use supermarket loyalty schemes — some offer fuel discount vouchers linked to grocery spending
• Keep tyres inflated correctly — under-inflated tyres increase fuel consumption
• Drive smoothly — gentle acceleration and braking improves fuel economy
• Add your regular stations to your favourites — track their prices over time to spot the best days to fill up